By Joe Atkins
Jon Jones, just three months after defeating Quinton Jackson, returns to the Octagon on Dec. 10 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, to defend his title against another former champion. “Bones” has everything going for him: He’s young, tremendously talented and fights out of one of the best gyms in the world. Destined for greatness or not, he has a stern test ahead of him.
Lyoto Machida’s crane-kick knockout over Randy Couture was impressive enough to land him another shot at the elusive light heavyweight title. “The Dragon” is one of the trickiest, most puzzling fighters to ever grace the Octagon. He has left many credible opponents scratching their heads bemusedly after they regain consciousness, thinking, “What on earth did he hit me with?”
UFC 140 also features a rematch between two heavyweight veterans when Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira takes on Frank Mir. The event is set to take place at the Air Canada Centre and airs live on pay-per-view at 9 p.m. ET.
The MMA Corner’s panel of Joe Atkins, Chase Buzzell and Josh Davis share their predictions for the main card fights in this edition of the Round Table.
Buzzell: Mark “The Machine” Hominick is known for his quick and accurate strikes. The accurate strikes is attributable to “The Machine’s” very technical style of fighting and overall, Hominick has a very good stand-up game. However, with the good comes the bad. Although not a glaring weakness, Hominick has struggled against solid grapplers and his submission defense is definitely in question. When looking at his nine losses, five of them have come by submission. There has been noticeable improvement considering Hominick has not lost by submission since 2008, but then again he has only lost twice since 2008. Therefore, although there has been improvement, there is no denying that Hominick seems to have some degree of weakness when facing submission artists.
Mark Hominick (top) against Jose Aldo (Ken Pishna/MMA Weekly)
Chan Sun Jung is also known for his striking, but “The Korean Zombie’s” striking reputation has been created by a much different approach than Hominick’s technical display. Jung has proven to be a brawler in every sense of the word, always pressing the action and looking to take his opponent out with a KO strike. This approach works well with Jung, given his granite chin. Thus, look for Jung to sit in the pocket and exchange without fear. In contrast to his brawling style, “The Korean Zombie” is very technical when it comes to grappling, and will seize a submission opportunity if it presents itself.
Jung has the advantage on the ground, however he has not shown a consistent desire to take fights to the mat even if he does possess the advantage, which I believe he does in this match. Even presuming that Jung will not attempt to take the fight to the ground, I feel that he has the advantage in the stand-up, even if not pretty, given his relentless attack and unpredictable strikes. Moreover, Jung’s chin will allow him to take Hominick’s punch and I believe he will out-point Hominick on his way to a split decision.
Davis: This fight has the makings of fight of the year possibility. You have two of the best in the division going at it in Hominick and Jung. Hominick has the best and most complete striking in the division and he will need to use this to his advantage if he is going to get back to his winning ways. Jung will certainly want to turn this fight into a brawl and take Hominick out of his comfort zone.
Jung is a very wild and unorthodox fighter and he is going to try to use this style to goad Hominick into an all-out brawl. If he can get Hominick to engage in this style of fight, then he certainly has a good chance at winning. Jung is also excellent on the ground and will quickly look for submissions if the fight goes to the ground. Hominick, though, has a very underrated ground game. Like Chase stated above, Hominick has struggled with elite-level grapplers in the past and has been submitted five times, but he does have a very underrated ground game and if the fight goes to the ground I look for Hominick to have the edge.
Chan Sung Jung (Scott Petersen/MMA Weekly)
This could be the most exciting fight on the card. The key to this fight is how Hominick will handle his first fight back since he lost to Aldo, how he will handle his first fight without long-time friend and coach Shawn Tompkins and how will he deal with the eight-month layoff. Hominick is game and will be up to the the challenge. He wins this fight by second-round TKO.
Atkins: If Jung fights smartly, this will be a competitive bout. He might be famous for his ability to take a punch and keep on swinging, but he won’t want to leave any holes in his striking defense for Hominick to capitalize on.
Hominick is known for his striking prowess, and technically he is better than Jung. However, there’s an element of his game I’m not so sure about: His jiu-jitsu. As Chase and Josh mentioned, he’s lost five times via submission, and “The Korean Zombie’s” ground game is both slick and underrated. I expect the fight to hit the mat at some point, and that’s where I predict it’s going to end.
I’m going to pick Chan Sung Jung via submission.
Davis: Claude Patrick and Brian Ebersole might not be two of the biggest names on this card, but this is a fight that you do not want to sleep on. Patrick is currently on a 13-fight win streak with three of those victories coming in the UFC. Patrick has solid Muay Thai striking skills with excellent submissions skills. He will want to use his superior striking skills in the fight to keep Ebersole on the outside and not allow him to shoot in for the takedown. If this fight goes to the ground, Ebersole will have an advantage, but do not count out Patrick because, again, he does have great submissions.
Claude Patrick (R) (Al Bello/Zuffa LLC)
Ebersole will forever be known as the man that defeated Dennis Hallman in his man panties, but he should be remembered for his fighting skills. Ebersole is currently riding a nine-fight win streak of his own, with two victories coming in the UFC. He is an elite-level wrestler and will look for an early takedown. Once on the ground, Ebersole has some of the best ground-and-pound in the business.
This fight is going to be a war. Both fighters want to make a statement and prove not only to the UFC but to the fans that they deserve to be at the top of the division. Look for Ebersole to use his superior wrestling to get this fight to the ground and work his ground-and-pound. Ebersole wins by TKO in the second round.
Atkins: Patrick has been silently climbing the welterweight ladder since arriving in the UFC back in 2010. His grappling-heavy style might not have won him any fans, but it has served him well in his career, as evidenced by his 13-fight win streak.
Ebersole impressed everyone in his UFC debut against Chris Lytle. He is a well-rounded fighter with no glaring weaknesses. He showed in his fight against Hallman that he’s not afraid to grapple, and after seeing how well he handled Hallman on the ground, I don’t believe he will be worried about Patrick’s jiu-jitsu.
Ebersole’s wrestling background should be enough to keep Patrick at bay. I don’t envision either fighter being finished, but I believe Ebersole will be able to squeak out a unanimous decision victory.
Buzzell: For the most part, I agree with each of my colleagues in that Ebersole is a good wrestler and has been impressive in his UFC appearances and that Patrick has equally impressed with grappling as his primary tool, as well. However, I feel there is a trend that has been completely missed here.
Ebersole is aggressive and unorthodox in his striking, which has served him well throughout his MMA career. This style seems to put the “Bad Boy’s” opponent on edge and uncertain where the next strike is coming from, but when late in fights, this aggressive unorthodox style, coupled with a tendency to tire and slow down, becomes sloppy and susceptible to counter strikes and takedowns.
Brian Ebersole (top) fends off Dennis Hallman at UFC 133 (Paul Thatcher/Fight! Magazine)
On the flipside, Claude “The Prince” Patrick has demonstrated that cardio and conditioning is a strong suit of his and although not a flashy fighter that has garnered the attention of fans, Patrick is efficient and effective. Moreover, “The Prince” has a tendency to telegraph his takedowns, but that won’t matter much if Ebersole is tired and sloppy.
I think Ebersole is a very good fighter and has more of a career to hang a hat on at this point and it would be no surprise if he won here. However, I am feeling the upset in Patrick simply because, given each fighter’s respective style, I do not think the fight will end early, thus the deeper the fight goes, so does the advantage to “The Prince,” who I think is the more technical and better conditioned fighter, and although boring, he finds a way to win. “The Prince” via decision.
Atkins: Is Antonio Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive wrestling strong enough to stave off Tito Ortiz’s takedown attempts? I think so. Phil Davis and Ryan Bader, both fighters with better wrestling credentials than Ortiz, struggled at times to take Nogueira to the mat.
Tito Ortiz (Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
One advantage Ortiz does have over Nogueira is size. Ortiz is a huge light heavyweight, and if he fights sensibly and doesn’t gas, we could see him use his superior strength to hold “Lil’ Nog” against the fence and keep him there to earn a decision victory.
That’s not how I see the fight panning out, however. He might’ve lost a step, but I believe Nogueira’s crisp boxing coupled with his improved takedown defense will see him out-pointing Ortiz en route to winning a decision.
Buzzell: There was a time in MMA history where Tito Ortiz was the most feared fighter. However, that time was nearly a decade ago. In more recent years, the unstoppable takedowns and brutal ground-and-pound of yesteryear has not been a part of Ortiz’s repertoire. Tito is still a dangerous fighter with a wealth of experience and skill, but the explosiveness is gone. If one can ignore the sentiment that attaches to the “Huntington Beach Bad Boy,” and looks purely from an objective standpoint, Ortiz is 1-5-1 in his last seven fights. Granted, Ortiz is never given a smoker and only fights the best in the division, but if we are to consider him one of the best he should have won more than one fight since December of 2006. At this point in his career, Ortiz seems to look the part, but loses the exchanges on the feet, cannot get off his back, and has not been able to impose his will on his opponent.
Nogueira has also lost a step over the years, however at this point in his career, when compared to Ortiz, “Minotoro” seems to have retained his skill set more so than Ortiz. He is also coming off a string of losses, but you do not have to go back five years to find a string of wins either. “Lil’ Nog” has not faced the competition that Ortiz has faced recently, nonetheless when watching the tape of Nogueira, he still seems relatively sharp. I believe Nogueira is still very technical and apt on his feet and if the fight goes to the ground “Lil’ Nog” has the definite advantage in the submission game. Ortiz is knowledgeable in the submission game, but “Minotoro’s” submission game at the light heavyweight division may be unparalleled.
I believe that Tito served as the bridge between the beginning years of Royce Gracie to the modern-day MMA competitor, and for that Ortiz should be heralded as one of the greats, but for this fight I cannot positively say that “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” has what it takes to take out Nogueira. I have “Minotoro” winning via submission in the second round.
Davis: Both of my colleagues bring valid points in their predictions for a “Lil’ Nog” victory, but I have to disagree. Ortiz is going to be the bigger, stronger fighter in this fight and he is going to have to take advantage of this if he is going to win. Nogueira is the more technical striker of the two and should have the advantage in a stand-up war, so Ortiz will need to use his size and strength advantage to press Nogueira up against the cage, wear him out and work for a takedown. From there, he will need to dish out the same style of ground-and-pound that he used when he was one of the most feared fighters in the world.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
What Nogueira lacks in size and strength, he should make up for in speed and agility, not to mention he has solid takedown defense. Nogueira will need to capitalize on his striking advantage if he is going to win this fight. If he can stay on the outside, find his range, he can pick Ortiz apart on the feet. Then Nogueira can work his takedowns if he decides he wants to take this fight to the ground.
There is no question that Ortiz’s days are numbered and retirement is near. After all, he is only 1-5-1 in his last seven fights. Nogueira, however, has not set the UFC on fire either. He is only 2-2 in the UFC and he is currently on a two-fight losing streak. I look for Ortiz to capitalize on his size and strength. Ortiz wins this fight by unanimous decision.
Davis: In a rematch from UFC 92, Frank Mir wants to prove that his TKO victory over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira was not a fluke. After his defeat, Nogueira indicated that he could not perform up to his best due to the fact that he was recovering from a staph infection and was unable to train properly. Mir dismissed the comments, but many people in the MMA world have clouded Mir’s victory because of this. This time, however, there will be no excuses and make no mistake about it, this time it is personal.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
What can you say about the legend that is Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira? The man has done it all. He has competed in some of the best fights ever and has proven time and time again that he can take a beating and come back. However his chin is starting to show some wear and tear. Both Mir and Cain Velasquez were able to drop Nogueira and ultimately finish him. Nogueira is, however, coming off one of his best performances in recent memory with a knockout victory over Brendan Schaub at UFC 134 and he wants to carry that momentum into this fight. If Nogueira is going to win this fight, he is going to need to use that striking that knocked out Schaub to set up the clinch and ultimately get this fight to the ground and turn it into a jiu-jitsu match. If Nogueira tries to stand and trade punches with Mir, he could find himself in for a long night.
Mir, on the other hand, will want to stand and trade with Nogueira and try to set the pace of this fight with his striking. If Mir can control the fight on the feet, then he can dictate where the fight will take place, giving him the option to keep the fight on the feet if he doesn’t want to go to the ground with Nogueira. If the fight goes to the ground, fans could be in for one of the best ground wars in heavyweight history.
Mir is on a two-fight win streak with his most recent victory coming at UFC 130 when he earned a decision victory of Roy Nelson. This is a must-win fight for both fighters if they want to move into title contention, but ultimately it will be Mir that takes the next step up the ladder. Mir wins this fight by third-round TKO.
Buzzell: Mir is one of the most frustrating fighters in the UFC. In one fight he can show why he was heavyweight champion at age 25, and in the next fight he can show up out of shape and disinterested. However, with that being said, it seems as though Mir has refocused his career and is looking to regain the title. Add in extra motivation stemming from MMA critics claiming that Mir did not beat Nogueira at 100% and we have the makings of a great rematch.
Mir is one of the most intelligent fighters in the UFC. His game plan, if created and employed, is always well thought out and usually effective. Also, his intelligence shows up in his slick BJJ that has been utilized a number of times on his way to victory. Mir also shows power in his hands, and you do not need to look any further than his knockout of “Big Nog” at UFC 92. However, Mir has also shown that he does not like to get hit, and if he does start to lose the battle on the feet, he looks to take the fight to the mat, which usually isn’t a bad idea, but consider his opponent.
“Minotauro” has fought the best in the world and proven he is a legend in the sport of MMA. Even at the age of 35, he has shown brilliance in his dominating wins over Schaub and UFC Hall-of-Famer Randy Couture. I agree with my colleague in that “Big Nog’s” granite chin has shown cracks in recent years. However, I do not believe that we will see Mir put him to the canvas again. Nogueira has consistently shown that he can find a way to win and I believe this tendency will hold true in the upcoming fight.
Frank Mir (Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
Throughout each of these fighters respective careers there as been a trend: “Minotauro” has shown excellent conditioning, whereas Mir has shown suspect conditioning, at times. I believe based on “Minotauro’s” presumed desire to exact revenge on Mir for his previous loss and Mir’s history of gassing, that Nogueira will avoid significant punishment by Mir and will grind on Mir until Mir’s will breaks. I have Nogueira pulling out a victory by slapping on a submission in the third round.
Atkins: Let me start by saying I was elated when “Big Nog” knocked out Schaub at UFC 134. He made it clear in that fight that he still has the desire to compete and can still do so at a high level. Provided he comes into this bout in good shape and is not suffering from any debilitating infections, this fight should be more closely contested than their first encounter.
Mir has all the tools to beat Nogueira again. He also knows that he can beat Nogueira. His striking is on par with “Big Nog’s,” and I’d give him the power advantage. On the ground, both fighters have excellent jiu-jitsu, and whilst I’d give Nogueira the edge, I don’t think we’re going to see either man caught in a submission.
As a Nogueira fan, it pains me to say this, but I think Mir is going to beat him again. Only this time it’s going to be by unanimous decision.
Buzzell: Since Jon “Bones” Jones has rounded into championship form, he has looked unbeatable. The destruction of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and the dominance over Quinton “Rampage” Jackson surely has stricken fear into the light heavyweight division. Although his career at the top has been short, the level at which “Bones” has performed is remarkable. Thus, it has been fair to question who is capable of giving Jones a challenge?
Lyoto Machida (Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida may just be that fighter. Machida may not be the strongest , quickest or most technical in this division, but his fighting style may present seriously problems for Jones.
Machida employs a very unorthodox style. He is very elusive in his stand-up, often getting in and out of the striking zone completely unscathed, while at the same time landing strike after strike. Throughout a match, “The Dragon’s” strikes may not seem devastating, but by the final bell, if his opponent has made it that far, Machida’s onslaught usually results in significant damage and his hand being raised. Moreover, what makes Machida so dangerous is that his style is a compilation of many martial arts including, but not limited to, karate, sumo, Muay Thai and BJJ. The downside to Machida’s style is that he is not engaged enough, throughout a fight, to consistently finish his opponent. Machida has gone to the judges’ cards in almost half (10 of 19) of his fights. With a fighter of Jones’ caliber, this may prove to be “The Dragon’s” death knell, as Jones has shown a propensity to finish his opponent.
Although the method of victory between Jones and Machida may be drastically different, there are a number of similarities between these two fighters. Jones is also very elusive and has shown incredible creativity in the striking game. Moreover, Jones has proven to be very creative in taking down his opponent. Jones has a college wrestling background which has provided a wrestling foundation, but throughout Jones’ MMA career he has vastly broadened his takedown arsenal to include many creative techniques founded in Greco-Roman, sumo and judo to name a few.
This fight pits two extremely unique, clever and creative strikers against one another. The advantage, if any, on the feet goes to Jones because he is more explosive, taller and rangier. On the ground, Machida may possess the advantage as “Bones’” ground game is mostly untested. Machida is an excellent grappler and has a BJJ game that is very threatening, especially at a weight class that generally is known for strikers. If Machida can get the fight to the mat, he very well could submit Jones. However, throughout Jones’ career, his opponents have had a very difficult time keeping him on the mat, as Jones uses his athleticism, strength and quickness to get back to his feet.
I believe Machida can give Jones the best challenge of Jones’ career due to the style match-up that is present. I also believe that if Machida can put this fight on the mat and seriously test Jones’ BJJ skills that Machida has a good chance of submitting Jones. However, in the end I believe Jones is too strong and athletic to be kept on the mat and will be able to keep the fight standing for the majority of the match and ultimately prevail on the judges’ cards.
Atkins: After seeing him manhandle two of the division’s best fighters in the space of six months, it’s difficult for me to pick against Jon Jones. However, I believe Lyoto Machida poses some unique problems for the champion.
Machida’s skill set is near impossible to replicate in the gym because nobody else fights like him. He is a tricky opponent, and he can make seasoned fighters look like amateurs with his use of range and unorthodox striking technique.
It is going to be difficult for Jones to utilize his imaginative striking in this fight, as Machida will look to keep the distance and engage only when he spots an opening. Jones’ striking has been effective in the past, but the majority of his opponents have been brawlers (Bonnar, Rampage, Shogun) who are willing to take a punch in order to land their own.
This fight might just humanize Jon Jones, but I still see the champion walking away with the belt strapped around his waist. I believe he will find success in this fight using his superior wrestling. I predict a stoppage in round three via ground-and-pound.
Davis: I have to agree with my colleagues for the most part here. Machida and his unorthodox style could give Jones significant problems. Also, Machida should do his best to get this fight to the ground. As for Jones, he is definitely the more athletic of the two and his superior size and reach could give Machida trouble.
Jon Jones (Tracy Lee/Combat Lifestyle)
Machida is a very dangerous opponent and he just might be the fighter to take down Jones. In order for him to do this, he will need to get back to the Machida of old. The elusive counter striker that possesses power in both hands. He will need to force Jones to engage and then capitalize on his mistakes.
Jones is arguably on one of the greatest runs in UFC history and with a win over Machida, it just might be the greatest run in MMA history. However, it is important that we keep this in perspective. Yes, Jones destroyed “Shogun,” but Rua was nowhere close to 100% and he was certainly not the dominant Rua that we have grown accustomed to seeing. Jones’ victory over “Rampage” was also nice, but again “Rampage” is no longer the dominant fighter that he once was. Machida is in his prime and a win here for Jones will be huge in his legacy.
This fight is going to come down to which fighter can impose their fighting style and game plan. Jones has not really been tested to this point in his career and I think that Machida will be able to test him. A win for Jones, though, would put him as one of the greatest fighters ever and he is still only 23 years old. This is going to be a tough fight, but Machida finds a way to break down Jones. Machida wins a hard-fought decision to regain the light heavyweight title.
